DECLARED: LIBERAL MAJORITY
The True North Times is now projecting a slim Liberal majority, given the state of the polls in Atlantic Canada, Ontario, and Quebec. Even with BC results just coming in, it is clear that the Liberals will most likely be forming a majority government, and will be governing through to 2019. The Liberals are at 184 seats as of the current count, with the Conservatives at 99. Results are still coming in, however. Thus far we have seen a complete destruction of the NDP, with just 44 seats now to a huge drop over the 2011 results of 103 seats.
Though the pollsters have gotten it wrong before, and thus far (despite results skewed towards Atlantic Canada), right now we’re far off the final CBC Polltracker composite registering at 39.5% Liberal, 31.9% Conservative, and 19.7% NDP. That compares to the actual results of 41.4% Liberal, 31.8% Conservative, and 18.4% NDP. There was no shy Tory effect here, if anything the Liberals were being a little bashful, though these results are still premature.
Notable riding results thus far are the easy re-election of (likely) future cabinet ministers Marc Garneau and Stephan Dion. Current ministers Julian Fantino and Chris Alexander are set lose their seats, along with Pierre Poilievre and Paul Calandra. Joe Oliver is fighting to win re-election. Shockingly, Thomas Mulcair is fighting in his own riding. Both Jean-François of Forces et Démocratie have lost their seats. Lastly, the Bloc has failed to see a resurgence netting only 10 seats as of this writing (though that is a gain). The clear story is the Liberal dominance, including the clean sweep of all four Atlantic provinces, Quebec, and the 905 region of Toronto.
That’s it. Contrary to the title of our series (Indecision 2015), Canada decided, well, decisively. In the meantime, we have the Liberal throne speech to look forward to in the next month, and a Conservative convention on the horizon once Stephen Harper inevitably resigns. In the mean time, it looks like Tom Mulcair will likely resign as well, given heavy losses, fighting in his own riding, and vocal opposition to his rightward shifts. We’ll keep updating at the results keep coming in, but so far, get ready for Prime Minister Trudeau (II). Expect marijuana and brothels to follow.
This article will be updated as new results come in