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A new poll by Forum Research out this morning shows Olivia Chow’s support cratering, and Ford’s…not really doing any better, but he’s now statistically tied with Chow and Tory. Well, at least Rob Ford’s in a three way, even if it’s not with those he’d like to jam.

After Chow’s calls for a handgun ban and no subway for Scarborough (LRT instead), her numbers have plummeted to 29% support, compared to 28% for Tory, and 27% for Rob Ford. With a 3% margin of error, this is anyone’s race (except Stintz and Soknaki, who are still way out in last with 6 and 5 percent, respectively).



She’s pretty upset with all the “Ciao Chow” jokes


Interestingly enough, Chow’s support has gone from 36% to 29%, a 7-point decrease, and the gain went to…Karen Stintz? She doubled her support from 3 to 6%. Tory, Ford, and Soknaki each gained a point too. But that means that this poll doesn’t suggest that Rob Ford has any chance of winning. In fact, 59% of Torontonians still call for Rob Ford to resign, and only 28% say they’d vote for him if it was just Ford, Tory, and Chow on the ballot. It’s not easy when everyone hates you.

Ford only has a 33% approval rating, the lowest of any of the five major candidates, but the numbers break down in interesting ways. 62% of those of Caribbean descent support Rob (must be because of his great accent imitation), which isn’t anywhere near “more votes in the black community than President Obama,” as Doug claims, but it’s still close to double his overall support. Chow’s centre of support in still in downtown Toronto, and Tory’s among old rich people in York (everyone who’s exactly like Tory).

What this poll does show is that Ford isn’t the first, or even the second choice of that many people, and they’d rather vote for the person with 3% of the vote than for him. 30% may be his ceiling, which means chances are, come election day, he’ll probably be packing up and going home. Ah well, at least we still have Mikey Ford to root for.