Time for our final projections on how this Ontario election race will go!
Polls have been showing a statistical tie between Wynne and Hudak, with neither showing much gained ground or momentum. Everyone has come to the same conclusion: Liberals are losing seats, PC and NDP are gaining. The question is one of degree. The consensus is either a Liberal or PC minority, and it’s expected to be razor thin. While there’s no way to know for sure what’s going to happen, you better bet we’re going to try to predict, based on our own model and analysis.
Our Projection
After a round of rigorous statistical analysis, our team is making the following prediction. It is worth noting that just about every pollster is saying that this face is going to be a toss-up. We agree.
A Liberal Minority Government, with a PC popular-vote win. That’s right, we’re saying the seats and popular vote will have different results, since our electoral system likes to defy logic and warp reality.
The PCs have been gaining ground since the debate, and Hudak has remained cool as a cucumber even as Liberals claim that he will blow up a hospital if elected, Joker style. We feel that Wynne’s anti-Hudak tactics will only make those on the fence lean towards the NDP or PCs. We’re also expecting many Liberals to stay home this election and not go out to vote. After all, 14% of the electorate says their main reason for voting is to “stop Tim Hudak,” which is not indicative of confidence in Wynne’s leadership. On the flip side, we expect PCs to be out in droves, as their hatred of McGuinty and Wynne has reached a tipping point.
With that, the Official TNT Percentage Projection is: 35% for the PCs, 34% for the Liberals, 24% for the NDP, and 4% for the Greens with a 2.5% margin of error. We suspect the PCs will pull off a popular vote victory due to support in rural strongholds, while narrowly losing in key urban ridings.
The Official TNT Seat Projection is: 45 seats for the Liberals (-8), 42 for the Progressive Conservatives (+5), and 20 for the NDP (+3). The Liberals will form the government along this razor thin line, holding downtown Toronto ridings and narrowly holding parts of Scarborough and Mississauga. That’s 45/42/20, meaning a Liberal minority, but just barely. Wynne will be looking over her shoulder, and all she’ll see is Hudak and Horwath hugging.
Aftermath?
There is a slight chance of a PC-NDP coalition, in order to throw Wynne to the streets. While they don’t always agree, they are both running on lower energy prices, an end to corporate welfare, and less corruption in the Ontario government. By working together we may just get that reality, and the stability that Ontario has always deserved. Also, when we say slight chance, we mean about the same odds as it raining meatballs.
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